![]() ![]() Your unvaccinated friend is roughly 20 times more likely to give you COVID Importantly, while the Lancet study also showed a similar rate of household transmission between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, there are a number of other studies in different contexts showing decreased transmission through vaccinated people. So, while in the rare instance where a breakthrough infection occurs, there may be a similar viral load, and possibly a similar infectiousness, there remain much fewer vaccinated people getting COVID. ![]() In reality, this means that for every 100 vaccinated people, somewhere between 0.2 and 4 of them would get COVID. While it’s difficult to estimate the rate of breakthrough infections accurately, studies have estimated they occur in 0.2% to 4% of people. We know being fully vaccinated reduces the likelihood of catching COVID even if the vaccines aren’t perfect (none are) and there are breakthrough infections. While the Lancet study specifically collected an even number of vaccinated and unvaccinated infections in order to compare them, this isn’t a true representation of the community in Australia. Vaccinated people clear the virus quicker than unvaccinated people, if they do get infected. Some studies find no relationship between the amount of virus in swabs and poorer outcomes, but others find an increased death rate with increasing viral load. The evidence on how viral load relates to severity of disease is mixed. For example, some people with COVID who don’t have symptoms and have low viral loads transmit more, as they are less likely to follow social distancing, mask wearing, and stay at home. However, this isn’t always clear in reality. ![]() Generally, higher viral loads are thought to correspond to a more contagious individual. Scientists can measure this by looking at your blood, or more commonly in COVID, swabs of your nose and throat. Viral load refers to the amount of virus present in someone’s bodily fluids at a given point in time. Why are we seeing more COVID cases in fully vaccinated people? An expert explains The data reported is an imperfect representation of the population, and the measures they used – a single swab and PCR test – don’t provide information about overall viral load over time. However, we shouldn’t fear this analysis too much. Viral load was similar in both vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. ![]() From 469 COVID cases, 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated people. The Massachusetts data came from a number of large public events over a two-week period in July in Barnstable County, Massachusetts. It also showed only a small decrease in the number of infections in household members between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, suggesting a similar level of infectiousness.Īnother unpublished pre-print, which is yet to be reviewed by other scientists, suggests a similar trend in viral load between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, as does a CDC report in the US from July which analysed outbreak data from Massachusetts. It found there were no differences in peak viral loads between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. It documented transmission and viral load in the group. A study in medical journal The Lancet followed 602 primary close contacts of 471 people with COVID. ![]()
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